Climate Change, Mosquito‑Borne Viral Threats, and Public Health Surveillance in 2026: A Global Synthesis

Ibrahim  Abu¹, Hiba Badr²*, Abdelraheem Almhboub³, Abubaker Ibrahim⁴, Elkhansaa  Mohamed Elsamani⁵

Abstract

 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19191910 

Background: Mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever, West Nile virus, and several encephalitides remain major public health threats whose distribution is increasingly shaped by climate change. Rising temperatures, altered rainfall, humidity changes, sea-level rise, urbanization, land-use change, and human mobility affect mosquito development, survival, breeding seasons, geographic spread, and viral incubation. Objective: To synthesize global evidence on the relationship between climate change and mosquito-borne viral threats and to identify implications for surveillance and public health preparedness. Methods: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched for English-language primary studies, modelling studies, surveillance analyses, and high-relevance preprints or reviews published up to 1 March 2026. Data were extracted on setting, virus, vector, climate variables, modelling methods, outcomes, and key findings. Risk of bias was assessed using adapted criteria for ecological, statistical, and modelling studies. Owing to heterogeneity, findings were synthesized narratively rather than by meta-analysis. Results: Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria. Evidence consistently showed that warming accelerates mosquito development and viral replication, with approximate optimal transmission temperatures of 26-30°C for Aedes-borne viruses and about 24°C for West Nile virus. High-emission scenarios projected northward expansion of Aedes and Culex vectors into temperate regions of North America, Europe, and Asia. Dengue and chikungunya risks increased in parts of Brazil, China, and Southeast Asia, while West Nile virus transmission seasons lengthened. Surveillance systems integrating climate, entomological, and epidemiological data remained limited and uneven. Conclusions: Climate change is amplifying mosquito-borne viral threats worldwide. Climate-informed surveillance, adaptive vector control, and stronger public health preparedness are essential to reduce future disease burden.